Eventually, boxing always returns to the big men. Heavyweights transcend the traditional boundaries of boxing in ways Middleweights and Welters never can. Enthralling the masses; from trailblazer Jack Johnson, to Jack Dempsey, from Joe Louis to Mike Tyson and of course the greatest of them all, Muhammad Ali too.
On Saturday, the boxing circus will pitch tents in the sand and insanity of Saudi Arabia as the nation continues its sponsorship of sporting events to distract from the sadism and impossible affluence of its ruling class.
All eyes will be on a pair of heavyweight attractions sitting proudly on top of the deep and intriguing Day of Reckoning bill. American Deontay Wilder faces New Zealand’s Joseph Parker in a battle of former belt holders that functions as a qualifier to box the winner of Anthony Joshua and Otto Wallin.
There is much at stake here.
No surprise then that the leading bookmakers offer a series of markets on this fight, and that Deontay Wilder is installed as a heavy favourite. The best odds available for the outright win are a miserly 1/5.
Activity could be decisive
The star of this match up is Wilder’s right hand. The power of the type Wilder possesses, is otherworldly and rare. Even for a heavyweight. He boasts an ability to knockout opponents with a single shot, and rarer still Wilder retains this fearsome capability from the first to the final round. However a fight is unfolding, and Wilder has been trailing before, notably in Ortiz and Fury fights, he is blessed with an extraordinary ‘equaliser’. Power that has helped him build a 43-2-1 record, including 42 knockouts, and overcome flaws in a technique that wanders from the frankly absurd to the barely coordinated.
Critical analysis of the pedigree and resolve of the 43 victims does undermine the achievement but Wilder’s power is genuine and if boxing lore is to be observed, it is the last thing a fighter loses. Wilder’s advancing years cannot be ignored.
Now aged 38, and with just one round boxed in more than two years – KO1 v Robert Helenius, Wilder has to be considered a veteran and age, not to mention the damage he accumulated in the second and third Fury fights, should not be overlooked when considering possible outcomes. All fighters erode. Some earlier than others, and however lean and mean a fighter reports to be, age catches up with everyone. Wilder is the same age Ali was when he fought Larry Holmes and older than Joe Louis when he was trounced by Rocky Marciano. Fewer rounds travelled, true, but age does matter. By contrast, this is Parker’s 5th fight in 14 months and he’s isn’t 32 until next year.
Wilder’s inactivity, and his obscene power in the solitary fight since the Fury losses, means potential decline remains an unknown. For those who like to trust the puncher in a fight, Wilder is a ‘wafer thin’ 4/11 to win inside the distance.
How big is the Parker threat?
Joseph Parker is a former title holder, having won the WBO belt by contentious decision versus Andy Ruiz in 2016 in New Zealand. Back then he was young, aggressive, with respectable power. As his career has unfolded and he has wandered West to the UK and toward the bigger purses available for challenging Anthony Joshua and others, he has evolved as a fighter and his results have ebbed and flowed.
He has become craftier and, in the company of larger, particularly more capable foes, also employed his natural mobility to largely good effect in notable contests with Joshua (LUD12) and, more recently, Joe Joyce (LTKO11). But, ultimately, he did lose both clearly. Now ensconced to Morecombe, England and home of Tyson Fury, Parker is firmly embedded in the Fury clan and trained by Andy Lee. One of the wisest voices around and the most qualified to create a plan to defeat Deontay Wilder, Lee is a sanguine and authoritative trainer. Pragmatic cornerman too. He improves Parker’s potentiality for success.
Damning to any urge to consider Parker’s prospects was his fight with England’s modestly equipped Jack Massey in January. Weighing little more than Cruiser, Massey caused a sluggish and rusty Parker problems and scuttled through to a points defeat. The Parker of that night is hopefully consigned to the history books and a refreshed and motivated version climbs the steps at the weekend. For that version of Parker has a chance.
There is a blue print available for beating Wilder, a confection of the success of Fury and Luis Ortiz tactics, but it will require stamina, footwork, good head movement and enough power to punish Wilder when he makes mistakes. Wilder makes lots. If Parker can use the ring, jab and move, use his experience, counter attack precisely and avoid any obvious errors of placement – there is scope for victory. It will be a career best win and a demonstration of guile, stamina and discipline Parker hasn’t quite conjured as yet.
He boxed carefully with Joshua in 2018 and eked his way to a moribund decision loss. It seems unlikely Wilder will extend the same fraternity Joshua appeared to when the pair met.
9/2 for the outright win isn’t tempting enough as Parker usually falls short at this level but he is better qualified than many of the men Wilder has faced. He boxed well in phases versus Joyce but ultimately couldn’t get to the finish line in front and was stopped.
Aged 31, he remains a younger member of the heavyweight top 10 and appears as determined as ever to scale the mountain. His record is peppered with good if unspectacular wins; 2016 – Carlos Takam UD12, 2021 – Derek Chisora SD12, UD12 and the Ruiz decision probably the best of them. Wilder is an entirely different proposition to all.
The potential for a quick knockout can never be dismissed with Wilder but Parker has the mobility and guile to make it hard for Wilder to detonate. Parker may win early rounds but as cliche insists, Wilder only has to get it right once, Parker must be perfect with his feet, his upper body movement and his positioning entering and coming out of exchanges for round after round. He is at a reach disadvantage too.
Expect Parker to be more than competitive but back Wilder to find the shot before the end at 4/11. Rounds are hard to predict and while returns are narrow for Wilder to knockout a former champion, still in his prime having boxed only round in two years himself, it is the shrewdest choice. Consider the over 6.5 rounds at EVENS to enhance your return.
Nobody wants to contemplate a Parker win, promoting him toward a rematch with Joshua that nobody wants to see would be difficult. Wilder winning this sequence of fights; Parker and then Joshua (or Wallin), would be two of the biggest in his career, and propel him toward a fourth Fury fight, if the giant Brit can beat Usyk next Spring.
It is good that fights are in the pipeline. As untrustworthy as that often proves.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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