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Dubois to win by decision 15/8 with BETVICTOR
On Saturday in Riyhad, Saudi Arabia, amidst the huge Day or Reckoning card, Daniel Dubois arrives at a crossroads in his boxing career. Triumph, and some of the lustre lost in defeat to Joe Joyce and Oleksander Usyk will be restored, defeat, and the suggestion Dubois lacks the ability and resolve to succeed at world-level will be confirmed.
Now aged 26, Dubois, 19-2 (18ko), was long-marketed by Hall of Fame promoter Frank Warren as the future of the division. The heir to the throne variously occupied by Fury, Joshua and Usyk.
The defeat to Joyce back in 2020, a knockout loss in which Dubois suffered a broken orbital bone around his eye and opted to kneel and take the 10-count when ahead on the cards, curbed excitement about his prospects. Warren too, seemed discouraged. It posed the question; is Dubois willing to risk, in the way the greats often must, to land the prize?
In his last high profile fight, Dubois again opted to remain seated despite still being ’in the fight’ versus Usyk. Seemingly dispirited by the knockdown he scored in the fifth round being deemed a low blow. Usyk was afforded recovery time in keeping with the infringement after a body shot landed on the belt of the trunks. That judgement, and the perceived injustice. appeared to steal Dubois’ belief. And by opting out when under pressure later in the fight, he was dropped by jab, it stole Warren’s too.
And so to Saturday, where Warren matches the softly spoken Brit with the loud-mouth, 300 pound New Yorker with two previous suspensions for failed drug tests, Jarrell Miller.
An unbeaten fighter with apparent self-confidence, who possesses power, size and a ‘nothing to lose’ attitude.
There is a sense Warren has matched his young prospect with the expressed purpose of determining whether he has the character to succeed. For all his technical short-comings and more than chequered back-story, Miller, 26-01 (22) will be bringing an all-action style.
It is a fascinating clash, as sad as boxing’s continued indulgence of Jarrell Miller is.
Dubois path to redemption
For Dubois to prevail he will need to display certainty in everything he does. He must impose himself behind the double jab from the outset and ensure he earns Miller’s respect with the right hand early too. Dubois is broadly a simplistic fighter. He was outboxing Joyce in their contest with lead lefts and straight rights and while Miller has a more animated style than the lumbering Joyce, a similar type of performance is necessary.
At 6’ 5 tall, Dubois has a height advantage more significant than the tale of the tape suggests, something evident in their various promotional face offs, but it will be redundant if Dubois doesn’t punch hard and fast with his jab. Miller rolls forward and throws a lot of punches; whether his performance is impacted by age, he is now 35, and the VADA testing he’s complied with thus far, remains to be seen.
Bookmakers still favour Dubois despite the misgivings encouraged by defeat. He is drifting at 4/9 with Star Sports for the outright win though, with Miller narrowing to 12/5 with UniBet.
Is Miller really the boogeyman?
Miller’s persona, his heft, Miller frequently weighs in 290 pounds plus, his various failed drugs tests – one of which came on the eve of a lucrative fight with Anthony Joshua in 2019 – have helped create an aura around him that scrutiny of his record doesn’t full justify. Unbeaten, yes. Powerful, legally or otherwise, yes, but in terms of opposition the ledger is light on quality. Aged 35, with two suspensions while active as a fighter, he has a small window to capture the purses and glory he chases.
His most notable win is perhaps a UD12 verdict over Johnny Duhaupas in 2018 or the wins over Mariusz Wach and Gerald Washington that preceded it. All three are merely trial horses with pretty records. Only Duhaupas travelled the distance. Miller tends to wear down opponents.
Miller will aim to push Dubois to the ropes and unload with hooks. He swings from low, it isn’t stylish, but it has been effective against lower level opponents. Dubois needs to demonstrate the acumen to avoid those situations and the gumption to survive when he is forced into them. 13/2 on Miller, available with VBET, repeating the trick Joyce and Usyk pulled in winning between rounds 7-12 is enticing. And shortening.
How does the fight play out?
The intangibles of morale and self-belief make confidence in Dubois harder to summon. But he is a devastating puncher, a factor being overlooked, and has superior technique to everyone Miller has faced. He is also younger, taller and fresher. I like, with reservations expressed, Dubois by decision, which will be an unpopular pick in a fight between a puncher and a brawler but at 15/8 with BETVICTOR I think it offers value.
It will take courage to opt for a distance fight and courage will be crucial to Dubois’ success too.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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