Article first published at gambling.com
Liverpool’s Liam Smith is seeking to confirm his superiority over Chris Eubank Jnr. this weekend at the Manchester Arena in a clash between two veterans in the Middleweight division. It will be a rematch of their fiery contest earlier this year in which Smith upset the odds to break Eubank down and stop the 33-year-old in the 4th round.
Bookmakers view their prospects differently in light of the surprise outcome and Smith, the former WBO Light-Middleweight belt holder, is now a 4/6 favourite to win again and Eubank 7/5 to reverse the result.
Boxing lore suggests immediate rematches follow the pattern of the first encounter and often more definitively. Exceptions exist but the technical advantages Smith exploited in the first fight remain in tact. Namely, his superior grasp of the fundamentals; the trite term afforded to boxing’s principle elements of jab, defence, judgement of distance and ability to throw punches in combination. Smith is a rounded performer able to box with both composure and absolute confidence in his ability even under extreme pressure.
For Smith, the first fight’s outcome was not a surprise. Merely the confirmation that his rival’s profile was undeserved and a fiction based on little more than his natural athleticism and a surname that opens doors to promoters, rankings and broadcasters. A theme which has continued in the pre-fight dialogue between the two, Smith, 33-3-1 (20ko) quipped, “You can kid these, (the gathered media) but you can’t kid me!”.
Smith’s certainty can feel compelling despite the physical advantages of height and reach Eubank holds. Viewed alongside the consistency of his recent resume – this will be Smith’s fifth fight in less than two years – and the stability of his style and training team, it is easy to conclude he is the safer investment.
Smith is available at 33/1 to repeat the fourth round stoppage but history and circumstances suggest the speed of his victory is an outlier and unlikely to be repeated. Eubank has demonstrated durability in fights against much bigger punchers than Smith.
Eubank believes Smith landed a “miracle” shot in their first encounter and he will be unable to do so again. It is the type of delusional trope Eubank has relied upon in a meandering 12-year career that hasn’t yet reached the peaks he has projected and increasingly look beyond his reach.
In a bid to improve his chances, and to add yet more threads to a patchwork of narratives, Eubank has dispensed with the services of Roy Jones and turned to Brian ‘Bo Mac’ McIntyre, the trainer of Terrence Crawford, to lead his team. Although a change of trainer is a familiar outcome when a fighter loses, it is hard to imagine how influential McIntyre can be over a single camp at this late stage.
As Smith was keen to point out in the build up to their first fight, whenever Eubank has boxed someone with pedigree and ambition; Saunders SD12, Groves UD12, and subsequently Smith TKO4, he has lost. To win Eubank must box as the bigger man, deploy his longer reach and use his height and hand speed. He must be patient, disciplined and not presume to possess the explosiveness of his twenties that devastated Avni Yildirim in three rounds back in 2017.
Last time taught the observant that all outcomes are plausible but probability suggests a longer fight second time around. The Over/Under is available widely at 8.5 rounds. It can underpin investment on the fight at 8/15. An early finish for Smith despite his previous success is unlikely. Eubank has taken and ‘held’ heavier shots at Super-Middleweight and there is scope to suspect he was weakened by weight loss and therefore more susceptible. Smith capitalised but the effects of his punches were a surprise.
Smith has shown stoutness too, in rugged encounters with Welshman Liam Williams and in respectable defeats to Saul Alvarez and Jaime Munguia. There is scope for later success for Eubank if he can preserve distance and breakdown Smith round by round but it is a theory with minimal evidence to substantiate. 10 rounds with the modestly equipped Marcus Morrison and the distance travelled with Liam Williams ample testimony to Eubank’s inability to stop fighters with far less ability than Smith in longer fights.
A points verdict is the sensible conclusion for two focussed and well prepared fighters. Liam Smith is available at 10/3 to win on the cards which if combined with the 8/15 for Over 8.5 rounds provides a healthy return on the bookies’ favourite in a rematch to a fight Smith won handily last time.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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