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Describing the first fight after the loss of a pristine record as a ‘comeback’ is problematic but nevertheless commonplace. It is one of the many tenants of the modern cult of the unbeaten fighter. An ideology with far fewer followers in bygone eras when activity was king.
Ryan Garcia, 23-1 (19ko), is the latest to find himself cast in role of the comeback kid. His matinee idol good looks, fast hands and a flair for social media launched the now 25-year-old into PPV level fights at an early age. His last fight, a loss to Gervonta Davis, LKO7, in which Garcia was knocked down twice, was a gargantuan feature bought by more than 1.2 million households in the US. The fight grossed in excess of $100 million in gate and broadcast revenue alone.
The ‘star’ was the match-up, but Garcia proved his own box office potential.
No surprise then that leading bookmakers all offer markets for his return against Oscar Duarte and favour Garcia strongly, 1/4 with UNIBET the best available on the Outright Win, but he isn’t quite the overwhelming favourite he would’ve been before that defeat. The inevitable question, how has Garcia digested defeat, is an intangible in predicting the outcome. Only the isolation of the ring in the Toyota Centre, Houston on Saturday night can now provide the answer.
Garcia still holds advantages
Despite the spectre of defeat casting a shadow across his record, Garcia remains a talented fighter with youth, speed and good range and precision in his punches. He will also be more accustomed to the scale of the event and can be presumed to be motivated to recapture any sense of lost momentum. In the aftermath of his defeat to Davis, Garcia parted company with trainer Joe Goossen. A predictable divorce. Goossen maintained in interview that Garcia had been a good pupil and the split was amicable. Whispers about Garcia’s commitment to his preparation continued to linger and there was sufficient nuance in Goossen’s account of their final camp together to encourage, rather than dispel, the notion.
New trainer Derrick James, will be proposed to be capable of extracting the best of Garcia’s undoubted potential and tighten the weaknesses he continues to carry. Notably his high chin, eagerness to chase in to ‘the storm’ and in doing so sacrifice his usual advantages of reach and hand speed. Gervonta Davis catching Garcia with a left hook as he rushed in and dropping him heavily, albeit from the Southpaw stance, a conspicuous example.
Duarte and the chance of a lifetime
Aged 27, and the owner of a respectable record of 26-1-1 (21ko), Oscar Duarte arrives at this bout as the outsider. But not one to be dismissed without consideration. 7/2 available with BETWAY for the underdog to prevail has some merit but requires doubt about Garcia’s focus. Opponents for ‘comeback fights’ are typically less qualified than Duarte. Offering modest offence and either stubborn defence or a demonstrable inability to absorb shots. In short, they are invited to be the piñata for the birthday boy.
Duarte will not be keen to fulfil that role. He has existed on the periphery of the world scene for much of his career, true, and has largely feasted on B-level and C-level opponents with pretty records, also true, but any review of his style and successes will encourage the bolder pundit.
However, as pugilistic lore insists, ‘there are levels to boxing’. Duarte may find out his explosive attacks merely leave him exposed to sharper counter punches at world level. His head movement is limited too and he often leaves his head over his front knee in attack. Garcia will also note that Duarte can be a little square on and when he throws a left hook his feet often leave the canvas. Flaws easily exploited by men as capable as Garcia.
Duarte does keep his chin tucked tight, he is broad, taller than Garcia, which will be unfamiliar to the favourite, and muscular in frame. He is a huge lightweight. His pet punch is the left to body, he starts and finishes combinations with it. And he rarely throws in isolation. In short, there is risk here for Garcia.
Keys to victory for Garcia
Anticipate Garcia to start fast, using his foot speed, precision and more elusive style to impress early. If Derrick James has impressed upon him the benefits of rounds, keeping distance, working on controlling opponents and his own exuberance with his jab, anticipate a distance fight. 9/4 with BET365 available. Duarte will not be discouraged easily, but he will find the punches he landed on opponents who folded in Community Centres and on low key under cards much harder to land on Saturday.
Paddy Power offer an exciting 25/1 on both fighters to be knocked down and Garcia to win on points. A bet that believes in Duarte’s power and aggression, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain, and notes Garcia’s lack of discipline in boxing from range.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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