Article first appeared at AndysBetClub
Saturday, Wembley Stadium. A fight for the undisputed Heavyweight title. Is there a more tantalising prospect in sport?
On the night, the brilliant Ukrainian Oleksander Usyk, 23-0 (14ko) will seek to confirm his status as the King of the division and the master of his generation by defying the hard-charging Brit, Daniel Dubois, 22-2 (21ko).
An intriguing battle of styles is promised; the guile and precision of Usyk versus the brawn and aggression of the revitalised Dubois.
At 38-years-old, Usyk can no longer be regarded as being in his physical prime. However, his efficient style and life-long dedication to the sport coupled with faultless technical prowess are extending his currency and his reign.
For Dubois, once troubled by inertia, nerves and an apparent lack of certainty in how best to deploy his obvious gifts, he has now matured into an exciting, aggressive puncher – trading shots with opponents with the confidence of a man suddenly aware of his own power.
Bookmakers offer a range of markets for the fight which tops the Queensberry show live on DAZN PPV.
One of the many truisms of boxing proposes that rematches tend to follow the pattern of the first fight only with a more decisive outcome. In August 2023, Usyk was typically patient, adjusting to Dubois style as rounds unfolded and ultimately, deconstructed whatever limited confidence the Englishman brought to the ring. He won in the 9th.
The concluding blow – an innocuous right-hand jab from Usyk’s Southpaw stance – extinguishing the last of Dubois resistance which had largely drained away when a belt-line body shot had dropped the champion in the fifth but was ruled a low blow. Frustrated and dispirited the sense the then 25-year-old didn’t possess the grit to persevere when things were going against him became widespread. Taking a knee late in the loss to Joe Joyce in 2020, a broken eye socket the cause, had promoted the notion and a chaotic display versus the modest Kevin Lerena two years later did little to dispel the idea.
Therefore, a safe conclusion is to back Usyk at the most meagre of margins of 4/11 to win. One way or another. Usyk has proven to be the master boxer, always away from home in the opponent’s ‘back-yard’ and often physically disadvantaged in height, reach, weight and age. The environment, the challenge, the stakes will not faze him. Improve margins by chasing a repeat of the first fight with Dubois confidence, gained against more conventional and lesser skilled opponents, ebbing away as once again Usyk’s precision and mobility frustrate the Englishman. Usyk to win by stoppage in rounds 7-12 offers 11/4.
Despite being the older man, Usyk has the more economic style, is accustomed to fighting Orthodox opponents in a way an Orthodox fighter cannot match with Southpaws. The veteran will not burn the nervous energy Dubois may expend in the early rounds either. Usyk’s accuracy should score the points with the three judges perched at ringside, and he tends to adjust and build through the middle rounds. He has the craft to eke out another win.
This doesn’t discount Dubois. The transformative influence of the sage Don Charles as his trainer has undoubtedly liberated his physical gifts from the constraints of the apparent mental fragility that blighted his earlier career. In victories over Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic and latterly, the once dominant, Anthony Joshua in crushing fashion has added steel to that mentality and a simplicity to Dubois’ strategy. ‘Go knock the guy out’.
A clarity of objective that seems to be a good, natural fit for his obvious physical tools. Strong with both hands, younger, fresh and emboldened by success.
It will be a meaningful victory if Usyk repels him aged 38.
For those looking for a higher return on Saturday, but want to stick with the quality of Usyk, it is possible there will be a knockdown for either man in this bout. Dubois claimed one in the first fight and has beaten up and knocked out big heavyweights in recent bouts.
There is a healthy 5/2 available on Dubois to drop Usyk and there is temptation in the possibility. Dubois is an improved fighter. Is younger, fresher and willing to trade in a way he wasn’t in their first fight. But Usyk is wily. Disguises discomfort. But body shots could be his weakness. As a strategy, it is a wise one for Dubois to pursue – as mobility and the quality of his footwork are some of Usyk’s most distinct advantages. If body work takes away Usyk’s ability to move freely it improves Dubois’ chances of a punch out which favours his power over the former Cruiserweight’s precision.
For punters who like the jeopardy and potential reward of a precise bet. Consider a narrative of Dubois repeating the breakthrough of their first fight but this time scoring a legitimate knockdown and his new boldness causing Usyk more problems. Think of the margins being tighter and opinion being split on whether to favour Usyk’s ring generalship and accuracy or Dubois aggression and heavier single shots.
Find odds on Dubois scoring a knockdown and Usyk to win by Split Decision. There is potential for a contested distance fight. It’s a narrative that delivers 50/1 returns.
Enjoy the fight. These are golden days in the heavyweight division.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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