Article first appeared at AndysBetClub
On Saturday night at the Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez, 63-2-2, will box Terence Crawford, 41-0, in a contest rich in both potential and purse. Netflix will broadcast the whole event.
Bookmakers are offering markets on the matchup between these two future Hall of Famers and unsurprisingly, given the quality of the pairing, margins and certainty are hard to find. Study of the under card will offer opportunity to improve returns.
A familiar boxing trope in events like this, where two equivalent fighters meet and one is stepping in to a higher weight class, is to conclude that “a good big man beats a good small man.” Canelo has a rich history at Middleweight (160lbs) and Super-Middleweight (168lbs) stretching back for a decade. A loss at Light-Heavyweight to the impervious Dmitry Bivol evidence of Canelo’s ceiling and the nature of the idiom. Nevertheless, the sensible pick based on this conclusion is to pursue the narrow 4/5 available for Canelo to win OUTRIGHT.
The size metric can be nuanced somewhat by greater scrutiny; Crawford has a tiny advantage in height and four inches in reach too. The reach will be useful if he is able to establish his jab. In physical frame, Crawford is not the smaller man despite spending most of his career in Lightweight and Welterweight divisions. It is easy to forget, given his own longevity, that Canelo began, as a championship fighter at least, in the Welterweight class.
Difficult to conjure evidence that Crawford is the puncher in the fight however, Canelo has hurt solid fighters at Middle and Super-Middleweight and taken the shots of hammer fisted men like Gennady Golovkin too. Canelo has only had to prepare for Crawford, not gain weight to do so, has boxed more recently and been active in this division. Crawford is a sparkling talent, if ageing, but Canelo remains the safest pick.
Take the Canelo Win on Points, neither man has ever been knocked down, available at 5/4, to stretch your return. Canelo has been the beneficiary of tight decisions in Vegas before too.
Leading the undercard is Christian Mbilli, 29-0, a powerful brawling Super Middleweight who fights for the WBC Interim title – a bauble of strategic positioning rather than status – against the unbeaten Lester Martinez, 19-0. This fight could well steal the show for however long it lasts. Martinez is tough, rugged and fights at a high pace. Counters from the inside well but likes to stay in range and punch it out, he is aggressive in style. Mbilli, likewise, is a front foot fighter. Has cleverness hidden amongst the all-out attack and punches hard with both hands. Mbilli has shared the ring with higher quality opposition and looks to have the edge in single shot power and natural size, those factors lead toward Christian Mbilli by KO/TKO at 13/8.
In a rematch of their 2021 fight, Ukrainian Serheii Bohachuk, 26-2, faces Brandon Adams, 25-4, at Junior Middleweight looking for revenge for the 8th round TKO loss he suffered despite being ahead on all three cards. In the intervening years, Bohachuk has been more active and there is a sense Adams is taking this fight as he doesn’t have a more lucrative route available since returning from a three-year sabbatical after the Bohachuk win. He lost his last fight too, and aged 36, against an active, motivated and taller man – looks booked for defeat. I like the UNDER 8.5 rounds at Evens in this bout. A Bohachuk win in the 7-8 is available at 7-1, but the return not value for the risk in a precision pick.
A heavyweight fight of interest on the deep undercard is Ivan Dychko, 15-0, versus the American Jermaine Franklin, 23-2. This is a key test for Dychko who pitches his upright, orthodox, jab, jab, right cross style against the less predictable Franklin. A lot depends on whether Dychko has genuine power in that long right hand or whether his level of opposition have exaggerated his potential. Franklin absorbed the best shots of Dillian Whyte and Anthony Joshua over 24 rounds in 2022/23. Despite his sloppy appearance, Franklin can box and has fast hands too. He won rounds against both Brits and it is difficult to suggest Dychko can outperform either man by stopping Franklin. There is scope for an upset here but confidence to make that pick is lost in the inactivity of Franklin. In his last bout he was 20 pounds heavier than his title shot versus Joshua and that fight against Devin Vargas was in May 2024. Dychko should be fit enough to eek out a PTS win at 13/5. For the nervous, the OVER 9.5 rounds is available at 4/7.
Request-a-bet
For those looking to squeeze greater value from the main event, given the narrow margins that exist between two elite talents and their prospects according to bookmakers, there is further value to find for the bolder investor.
Canelo winning the fight remains the bedrock of any selection. And a longer fight feels inevitable. Knockdowns are hard to have faith in, given both have never touch down. Neither man can claim to be in their prime, so decline could present opportunity for a breakthrough.
To win, Canelo will likely have to be busy, impressing judges with activity and control of pace. His punch output has declined over time and Crawford is elusive. But Canelo landing 150+ punches in the fight, with no knockdowns and Canelo to win strikes me as a shrewd trio.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
Leave a comment