Last Orders. Fury and Usyk rematch in Saudi

Article first appeared on AndysBetClub.com

At a time ironically close to ‘last orders’ on Saturday night, Tyson Fury will stride across the ring in Saudi Arabia looking to avenge his only career defeat in a hotly anticipated rematch with nemesis Oleksander Usyk.

The arena will be devoid of liquor, atmosphere and history and as such, is an entirely unbefitting back drop for a match as good as this one. Unquestionably, the two best heavyweights in the world will pit their remaining motivation, boxing acumen and the glowing embers of their physical primes against one another.

It is a fight likely to anoint the victor as the consensus king of a decade the pair have shared with Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder. An era that began when a youthful Tyson Fury befuddled a creaking Wladimir Klitschko in Dusseldorf in 2015 and will either draw to a close on Saturday or, entirely conceivably, in the beguiling, if competitively spoiledfinancial feast of Fury v Joshua in 2025. Irrespective of the outcome this weekend.

If victorious Usyk may choose to walk away from the sport while on top, and undefeated. Of the big men, only Marciano retired without a loss and Lennox Lewis while still on top. It will be a rare feat if the 37-year-old accomplishes it.

Their first fight naturally offers insight into how Saturday’s rematch could unfold. Following an equal opening; in which Fury had the more dominant phases, Usyk slowly found his range and rhythm before almost stopping the giant in the 9th. Only Fury’s reputation for surviving a crisis and the high stakes of the fight kept the referee from intervening beyond the one count issued.

The outcome surprised most and in the aftermath the legend of Usyk grew, but so too did the proposed dominance of his performance. For those who enjoy betting on boxing the simple narrative is to presume Usyk will repeat his victory and perhaps more clearly than the first. That is a truism often applied to rematches; that the outcome will mimic the first, only more explicitly.

For this observer, the punch stats from the first fight, the judges scores and the ‘eye-test’ of a rewatch encourage an alternative forecast. I anticipate an improvement from Fury tactically and it may only require minute adjustments and incremental improvement round by round to win. Better use of his physical advantages but more importantly – a greater discipline in his application. Too often in the early rounds he was willing to indulge in the pantomime of the performance and relinquished the control he was threatening to acquire in the 3rd to the 6th round.

To that end, consider support for a Tyson Fury win by any means; available at 13/10 with Betfair.

There are intangibles at work, as always. Did Usyk expose a loss of punch resistance in Fury? Has Fury aged faster than Usyk due to long periods of inactivity and ballooning weight? With the sense of invincibility broken, can Fury impose himself with the same confidence he did in Wilder rematches?

Decline in a fighter, although slower in heavyweights, is inevitable. Fury for all his success has been in some tough brawls, most notably the three fights with Deontay Wilder of course, but the farce with Ngannou was also unexpectedly difficult, and the blood-soaked gruel of his win versus Otto Wallin is easy to overlook too.

Those moments of crisis are usually the result of lost concentration. There have been a few in his 242 rounds as a professional – and 8 times he’s been floored as a result. Loss of focus was a theme as he ceded control in the first fight with Usyk and then, with senses scrambled, couldn’t reclaim that poise and control of distance. Critics and Usyk advocates will point to Fury’s best wins when boxing in an aggressive style; Wilder, Whyte, Chisora and Schwarz, all being accumulated against technically limited opponents.

Usyk is the antithesis of that quartet. He will box with precision and look to counter on any laziness in the Fury jab. He will try to present a small target without crouching into the uppercuts Fury throws. Fury must respect Usyk’s power more than perhaps he did before their first encounter, but it seems unlikely he will merely box behind a jab from distance. Usyk is nimble and will counter and throw combinations if Fury becomes stationary or retreats.

I sense a knockdown, or knockdowns, will occur this time around; Fury is likely to commit more wholeheartedly to attacks – Chisora enjoyed some positive moments when he crowded Usyk and Fury’s win in Wilder 2 showed his ability as a front-foot fighter too – and that expected aggression increases his own chances of scoring a knockdown but also of being clipped as he attacks.

I anticipate Fury aggression and weight of shot to secure a knockdown at some point – BetFair offer 9/2 on Usyk beingfloored in rounds 1-6.

For more precision and more lavish returns, consider combining the notion of Fury winning outright and both fighters being knocked down – Fury has a history of climbing from the canvas, in both illustrious and modest company too and has the power to hurt Usyk in the way Daniel Dubois did. 14/1 is available via BetFair and is an interesting bet for the enthusiastic thrill seeker.