Article first appeared at AndysBetClub
On Friday night, in one of boxing’s oldest and most storied colosseums, Madison Square Gardens, New York, Katie Taylor will meet Amanda Serrano for the third and probably final time. It is a venue dripping in history – from LaMotta versus Robinson, Louis and Marciano to Lewis and Holyfield and the fight of the century, Ali versus Frazier in 1971 – ‘The Garden’ has seen it all.
The trilogy bout between the two veterans is likely to confirm their own place alongside those illustrious pairings. Taylor and Serrano first boxed in 2022 in a fight widely considered one of the greatest contests in women’s boxing history at this same venue and their rematch in late 2024 was equally compelling and ferociously fought. A ferocity that made this trilogy bout inevitable and hotly anticipated.
Markets are available for those looking to profit from the action and the fight, promoted by Jake Paul’s MVP Promotions, will be freely available to Netflix subscribers.
At stake is a prize worth more than the purse or the IBF, WBC, WBO and IBO belts Taylor will be seeking to hold on to. Should Taylor win against Serrano, for the third time following two ‘razor’ thin decision victories, she will confirm dominance, however marginal, over her greatest rival and take her place as the greatest female fighter of her generation. Clarissa Shields may argue to the contrary but Taylor’s level of opposition in the lower weights has been tougher than her American contemporary.
When the last bell is tolled on their respective careers Taylor and Serrano’s names will live long in the minds of those who saw their bouts and such was their intensity that their names, like Ali and Frazier before them, will be eternally connected.
Bookmakers have installed the 36-year-old Serrano, 47-3-1 (31), as the 4/6 favourite for the bout – incongruous with the two victories Taylor boasts – but perhaps reflective of perceived decline in Taylor over a sequence of fights. Now 39, Taylor’s relentlessly aggressive style is hard to sustain as the years and rounds pass. She has been in a series of tough, long fights and accumulated 214 rounds in half the number of bouts Serrano has boxed 246 rounds in. It is Taylor’s refreshing insistence on meaningful opponents that has drawn her to more punishing battles. Coupled with a lack of knockout power, and the shorter two-minute rounds that reduces the potential of stoppages, Taylor has prevailed in a lot of attritional contests.
Her record of 24-1 (6) illustrates the point. Despite her brilliance and high output style she rarely succeeds in stopping her opponents and therefore travels the full distance more often than most elite fighters. A desire to entertain also ensures her aggressive, pressuring style is always deployed. She is a better boxer than she ever affords herself the opportunity to be. As a result, she is hit and has perhaps become more hittable as her youth has faded. Over time that willingness to take shots to land her own carries a price. In victory and defeat to Chantelle Cameron and in flatter moments in other fights, there has been evidence of some of Taylor’s zeal and energy having been lost along the way.
The safer pick is to back Serrano to finally secure a victory; many made the argument for her in their first two fights. At 4/6, Serrano to win Outright, the odds are meagre, it is a surprise to see such confidence in her prospects given those two defeats previously. Instinctively, betting against Taylor is hard to do. I was ringside for her debut and even then, she had an aura of invincibility. A dedicated professional she will box with her characteristic intensity, but I sense Serrano may just have developed into the weight a little more and perhaps be the fresher of the two. Taylor is close to 40 has been in wars for a long time. Being dedicated doesn’t stop the ageing process. Father time comes for everyone.
A stoppage remains highly unlikely. Both showed grit and stubbornness when their previous two fights ebbed and flowed. Theoretically, Serrano is the puncher in the fight having stopped 31 of the 47 women she has beaten, but mostly they were at lower weights and with inferior opponents. It will require a collapse in resistance from one for the other to secure a stoppage win. The two minute rounds, and only 10 rounds to compete, further reducing the probability.
A Serrano pick on Decision, improves the return to 20/21, and could be bolstered by pairing with the Over 8.5 rounds at 1/7 as a pair.
In their previous two bouts the margins were very tight – 95-94,95-94,95-94 in November – and the point deduction Taylor suffered for a headbutt in the 8th adding to many spectators feeling Serrano deserved the decision. It is this narrowness of margins, this equality that the greatness of their rivalry is forged. The sense Serrano is ‘owed’ a decision does enter considerations too. But a bet to contemplate in this bout, perhaps more than any other given that equality, is the Draw at 16/1. In a 10-round bout, with low prospect of knockdowns to disrupt scorecards, judges arriving at a 5-5 verdict is entirely plausible.
For those willing to push for a more creative narrative, consider looking for odds on Serrano to score a Knockdown and Win the Decision. If Serrano can be precise and use Taylor’s forward momentum against her, and if – thats two big IFS – Taylor really is in decline, she may be able to force a knockdown either early when Serrano’s power is freshest or later when Taylor’s fatigue grows.
Bet wisely. But be wise and tune in for what is sure to be an historic slugfest.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
Leave a comment