Article first appeared at AndysBetClub.com
At the AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas on Saturday night, heavyweight legend Iron Mike Tyson will box Jake Paul in a fully sanctioned contest to determine who the bigger fool is; the 58-year-old Tyson clambering back between the ropes, the 27-year-old You Tube star Paul daring to tangle with even a decrepit husk of the once impervious former champion or we the viewing public simply for tuning in.
For those willing to indulge this circus as the boxing match it proports to be, finding value, form and the advantage one may hold over the other – in the way conventional fights are analysed and previewed – is further complicated by the unknowns of Tyson’s inevitable decline and Paul’s peculiar path to this bout.
Bookmakers are in consensus that Jake Paul is the favourite – widely available at around 4/9 for the OUTRIGHT WIN, with Mike Tyson therefore available as a 2/1 underdog.
This conclusion is broadly drawn on one single metric. Youth.
Aged 27, and the younger man by 31 years, Jake Paul is in his athletic prime. And, vitally, for all his detractors of which there are legion; he trains, he spars, and he is pursuant of improvement in himself as a professional fighter. Were that pursuit designed to genuinely progress in public perception and the divisional rankings Paul would box more regularly because that is the primary device for developing, but such is the magnitude of his events that he boxes with the frequency of an established champion or Pay Per View star. Once or twice a year. And as such, he remains woefully unqualified to fight Mike Tyson.
But of course, this isn’t that Mike Tyson.
In Jake Paul’s bout with Tommy Fury, half-brother of former World Champion Tyson Fury, the only legitimate, active boxer he has faced, Paul lost. His performance best defined as wary, his fundamentals – the jab, footwork, defence – modest at best. Mechanical and dysfunctional at worst. That wasn’t a heavyweight fight either.
And it is this type of circular narrative which makes this fight so hard to predict. Consideration begins with the inescapable reality of Tyson’s age and inactivity – he was born before England won the football World Cup and hasn’t boxed since 2005 when he quit on his stool to a lumbering Irishman called Kevin McBride – but always returns to Paul’s meagre experience and limited skill set.
Boxing fans find it hard to pick against Tyson. Even this version, such is the indelible mark he left on all who witnessed his prime. This observer among them.
For those tempted to indulge the nostalgia, or to focus on Paul’s conspicuous weaknesses, odds of 18/1 are available on Tyson winning in the opening round and a boosted 9/1 with BETFAIR on Rounds 1-2. Two-minute rounds narrow the probability of this. They increase
the chances of Tyson going further on the remnants of his youth in terms of rounds but reduce the chance of him finding knockout blows or a sustained phase of pressure.
Despite misgivings and residual respect for everything Tyson has been, Jake Paul remains the logical if somewhat heartbreaking selection.
Make use of the 4/9 OUTRIGHT WIN as a relatively safe pick.
It covers a Tyson retirement or disqualification, and he has form for both, as well as more conventional points and TKO/KO routes to victory for Paul. Although both men stand to earn purses in the region of $20m, Tyson loses little but pride in defeat, something he’s likely to meet with the benign smile of a man $20m richer for a few weeks work. Defeat for Paul, to a 58-year-old relic, more of a profile blow.
One route to a more ‘protected’ bet is to consider the Over/Under. BetFair have set their market at 5.5 rounds. The under would cover a Tyson collapse under the weight of years, injuries and inactivity alongside the potential for him to land a blow the power of which Paul has not encountered in his carefully curated career to date. The adage that the last thing a fighter loses is his power supports the notion too.
UNDER 5.5 rounds is available at 5/6 with BETFAIR
For those more cavalier with their investments and willing to believe the two-minute rounds enables Tyson to last longer aerobically, the precision of backing Jake Paul to win in the 5-6 rounds is available at 7/1. Those odds are narrow because of the possibility of Tyson simply running out of energy as opposed to much evidence of Paul’s power, although his uppercut has merit.
A departure just after halfway to an unspecified injury may permit Tyson to lose and retain the dignity he checked in when he signed the contract.
There is some contention and overlap between the two bets, but round 5 feels like the pivotal point in the contest.
PAUL TO WIN ROUNDS 5-6 is 7/1 with BETFAIR.
Enjoy the fight, whether from behind the sofa or watching through your fingers.
Bet with caution. In the circus, anything can happen.
BOXINGWRITER.CO.UK 
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